Friday discussion post
Is it all rage bait? Matt finally comes clean.
2026 ELWAY NFL projections: Week 8
Team ratings, playoff and Super Bowl odds, and forecasts of every upcoming game from Silver Bulletin's exclusive NFL model.
This Week's Articles
QBERT 2026 NFL quarterback ratings
Our advanced statistical ratings on every quarterback’s past, present, and future are back, just in time for the new NFL season.
FLIPR 2026 Governors forecast
Silver Bulletin's prediction for every gubernatorial election in 2026.
FLIPR 2026 House forecast
Silver Bulletin's prediction for every House election in 2026.
FLIPR 2026 Senate forecast
Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate election in 2026.
FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast
Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate, House, and gubernatorial election in 2026.
How popular is Donald Trump?
Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.
Who’s ahead on the generic congressional ballot?
Our constantly-updating tracker of polls for the most important indicator in the race for Congress.
How popular is the Iran War?
We're tracking how the American public feels about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The cognitive dissonance election
Democrats like what the polls say. They’re just not sure they believe them. Plus, Still Counting EP8 and our Election Night plans.
How Republicans lost voters’ trust
New poll has Democrats leading by 11 points
The underrated — but hated — insights of Econ 101
Plus remote work, ethnostates, and my interview with Mehdi Hasan
Don’t Root Against El-Sayed Because You Imagine That Anyone Will Learn Anything
Nobody ever learns anything
Thursday discussion post
Have you heard? There’s an Election Day around the corner.
“The Argument” podcast, ad free: The human condition in the age of A.I.
Stream this week’s episode without ads and get the transcript and show notes.
How to beat the deficit hawks
Growth against austerity
How I would fix all of America’s major problems
Let’s stop being practical for once.
Google has Succeeded in Disrupting Itself
Google’s negative FCF and Search decline is concerning. Google bets on TPUs being an Nvidia competitor.
Some thoughts on South Carolina’s surprisingly close Senate race
What if Black voters turn out like it’s a presidential race? Democrats’ path to a Senate majority could become much more robust.
A pastor, a Tejano singer, and a slew of salmon and Sullivans walk into a midterm
With less than a week until Election Day, Democrats are feeling good. They’re also wary as key races remain neck and neck.
LIVE: Election night with Nate Silver, Galen Druke, and Matt Yglesias
Exclusive live blog: Election-night analysis from The Argument, Silver Bulletin, Slow Boring, and GD Politics
How popular is Elon Musk?
Silver Bulletin favorability ratings for the world's richest man.
My weekend with the “sex-realist” feminists
The pro-family conference that wasn’t
Those who work and those who post
Mamdani seems surprisingly moderate because mayors need to govern.
Every Republican Ad in Wisconsin Is “MY OPPONENT IS A RADICAL LEFTIST!!!”
Could lessons be learned from these subtle cues?
How to use Claude AI for Investing and Equity Research
Anthropic Token inflection point post Opus 5.5 is now live. How to use Claude for Investing and Equity research. a guest post from an experienced Equity research analyst.
Tuesday discussion post
The Cheesecake Factory and an election in Israel
The 83 remotely competitive House races, according to FLIPR
If there’s a blue wave, how far could it reach?
Anthropic S-1 & Datacenters are Politically Unsustainable in 2026
It’s official: Democracy and low AI sentiment is now an AI bottleneck. AI Infrastructure is hitting a consumer and voter snag.
Sold a Story is not the whole story
The right way to teach is simple. Teaching is not.
Republicans Are Being Woke Snowflakes About Obama’s Cheesecake Factory Line
Legalize comedy!
Why I don’t write about A.I. all the time
It might be the most important issue right now, but I’m not history’s main character.
Make housing affordable again
Trump makes an affordability play just before Election Day as California construction rises, Los Angeles tries to manage its homelessness response, and Bloomberg and Gen Z assert their own leadership.
IMBW Audio: Why Does the Comedy-Slash-Investigative-Journalism Genre Even Exist?
Plus: Italian anarchists were effective because they were organized
What economists just don’t get about climate change
The case against cheap climate policy
Scammy fundraising is a big problem
It’s tough to say anything meaningful about the midterms at this point, but Democrats should think harder about their fundraising.
First they came for Ilhan Omar
Birthright citizenship is dumb. That's the point.
Let’s talk shop about every Senate race
When FLIPR and prediction markets disagree, which has the better case?
Sunday Thread + Mailbag
(Click to read full article)
Vivek Ramaswamy gives himself an October surprise
Also: Autotranslation breeds international beef, the best ever Subway Take, and infinite scrolling at school
The polls were fake, but the results were real
Fraudulent polls are just more evidence of social media’s corruption of democracy.
IMBW Audio: What the Hell Was I Thinking: Can the Problem with Apu Be Articulated?
Plus: Why in the world would Americans care about Romania?