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🏈 The latest on QBERT

This is the landing page for QBERT. As with our other landing pages, it’s best viewed on the web rather than over email or in the Substack App. The charts and tables will be updated regularly, and some of the text will change, too.

QBERT has been updated with Week 8 games. Yes, QBERT absolutely loves Brock Purdy.

Here’s what you can expect to see in each week’s update:

  • QBERT ratings for each QB so far in 2026

  • A breakdown of each QB’s weekly ratings for 2026, allocating credit between his passing and rushing performance and adjusting for the difficulty of the conditions he faces

  • An updating lifetime leaderboard of the top QBs in NFL history. (Yes, Tom Brady remains #1.)

  • A mini-interactive chart where you can compare any two QBs since 1950.

  • Projected QBERT ratings for each QB’s next start.

  • And QB depth charts with injury and point-spread ratings.

See also: ELWAY NFL projections.

Who are the best QBs in the NFL?

Up first is our current leaderboard. QBERT is both a historical rating system and a quarterback projection system. The left and middle columns reflect year-to-date performance and can be noisy early in the season. WAR accounts for playing time and, more specifically, the number of “QB plays” (basically passes, QB rushes, sacks, and certain penalties like defensive pass interference1). Projected ratings also reflect data from previous seasons, aging curves, and injuries:

📊 Interactive Forecast Model

This data model contains live interactive controls and charts that require direct authentication.

View Live Interactive Model on Silver Bulletin →

And here is more detailed data on every QB to have thrown a pass in 2026. Our adjusted QBERT ratings are lower across the board than our raw QBERT ratings because the modern NFL is very pass/QB-friendly: an average 2026 season would have been considered extraordinary by 1986 standards. They also account for the strength of the opposing defense, home-field advantage and even the weather:

Up next is our game-by-game breakdown, including the best starts of the season so far. With only one game in the books, it will heavily resemble the yearlong leaderboard for now. However, we’ve also broken down performance into two major categories: “pure passing” on the one hand, and rushing and sack avoidance on the other hand. These weekly ratings include various adjustments, such as for the amount of pass pressure a QB faced, with a small bonus for clutch/comeback wins. Ratings in the individual categories are taken relative to league average given the difficulty of the conditions a QB faced. Since an average QBERT rating is defined as a score of 80, you can add 80 to his passing performance grade and his rush/sack performance grade to get his overall adjusted QBERT rating for the week.

📊 Interactive Forecast Model

This data model contains live interactive controls and charts that require direct authentication.

View Live Interactive Model on Silver Bulletin →

The best quarterbacks of all time

Next, here is our mini-interactive allowing you to evaluate and compare any QB who has taken a snap since 1950. This data is based on adjusted QBERT ratings, which put all QBs on a level playing field given the context of their eras. We hope you’ll have a lot of fun with this, but please let us know if you’re having browser-compatibility issues.

📊 Interactive Forecast Model

This data model contains live interactive controls and charts that require direct authentication.

View Live Interactive Model on Silver Bulletin →

Here, meanwhile, is our lifetime QB leaderboard, with active players highlighted. It’s sorted by wins above replacement (WAR), which is heavily dependent on career length; players like Patrick Mahomes are almost certain to continue climbing the list.

Our historical QBERT ratings combine the regular season and the playoffs; there are difficulty adjustments based on the quality of the opposing defense and even weather, so guys aren’t punished for facing tougher postseason defenses. We also have a separate leaderboard with just playoff performance — Mahomes is already #3 on that list — which we’ll restore as the playoffs approach.

Projections, depth charts, injury risk and point-spread impacts

This section contains the data that QBERT and ELWAY use to make projections. Here’s our projected QBERT rating for each QB for his next game, conditional upon being named the starter.2

Finally, our QB depth charts include two key features:

Note that we consider Ourlads to be the best depth chart source, and we tend to trust their judgment, with occasional manual edits. Our depth charts include players on the practice squad and injured reserve lists.

📊 Interactive Forecast Model

This data model contains live interactive controls and charts that require direct authentication.

View Live Interactive Model on Silver Bulletin →

Bug reports? Feature requests? Thoughts about what you like about QBERT — or how it could be improved? Don’t hesitate to drop us a line.

1

More precisely, “QB plays” are defined as passing attempts (excluding spikes) + DPI calls + intentional grounding calls + sacks + QB rushing plays (excluding kneels).

2

Note that these projections are conditional upon the QB being the starter. QBs perform worse when coming off the bench, and a player’s QBERT rating will gradually deteriorate if he doesn’t see action or misses time because of injury.

3

This can be calculated as approximately (QBERT − 68) × 0.235.