📈 Our latest gubernatorial forecast
Updated October 30, 2026
ELSEWHERE IN FLIPR:
This is the landing page the FLIPR1 2026 gubernatorial forecast.2This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our email client or in the Substack app.
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The gubernatorial polls
The Silver Bulletin polling averages are the first step in FLIPR, so we reproduce them on every page. We draw most of the election polls used in our model from The New York Times poll database3, but collect generic ballot and congressional approval polls ourselves.
The gubernatorial forecast
Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 gubernatorial race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and a chart showing which party will govern more Americans after the midterms.4
The races to watch
Start with the most competitive states, and then compare the win probabilities, projected vote shares and race ratings for every 2026 gubernatorial race.
The details
See how the polls and fundamentals compare in each gubernatorial race, and how the expert ratings compare to the data-driven ratings.
Topline forecast · House · Senate · Governors
Bug reports? Feature requests? Thoughts about what you like about FLIPR — or how it could be improved? Don’t hesitate to drop us a line.
Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings.
Please email us at silver.bulletin.customer.service@gmail.com if you notice any missing polls.
We also include polls from a few pollsters that The New York Times excludes from their database, and exclude surveys from firms we ban or that don’t meet our standards for being scientific surveys.
The population estimates in the chart are probabilistic. They reflect each state’s projected population as of Nov. 3, 2026 (yes, FLIPR even forecasts population growth) multiplied by the probability of the party winning the state.