FLIPR 2026 House forecast

This is the landing page the FLIPR1 2026 House forecast.2This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our email client or in the Substack app.

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The House polls

The Silver Bulletin polling averages are the first step in FLIPR, so we reproduce them on every page. We draw most of the election polls used in our model from The New York Times poll database3, but collect generic ballot and congressional approval polls ourselves.

The House forecast

Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 House race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and which states are likeliest to decide control of the chamber.

The races to watch

Start with the most competitive seats, and then compare the win probabilities, projected vote shares and race ratings for every 2026 House race.

Paths to a majority

See which districts are most likely to decide House control, and how different national popular-vote outcomes translate into House seats.

The details

See how the polls and fundamentals compare in each House race, and how the expert ratings compare to the data-driven ratings.

Topline forecast · House · Senate · Governors

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