FLIPR 2026 Senate forecast

This is the landing page the FLIPR1 2026 Senate forecast.2This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our email client or in the Substack app.

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The Senate polls

The Silver Bulletin polling averages are the first step in FLIPR, so we reproduce them on every page. We draw most of the election polls used in our model from The New York Times poll database3, but collect generic ballot and congressional approval polls ourselves.

The Senate forecast

Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 Senate race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and which states are likeliest to decide control of the chamber.

The races to watch

Start with the most competitive states, and then compare the win probabilities, projected vote shares and race ratings for every 2026 Senate race.

Paths to a majority

See which states are most likely to decide Senate control, and how different national popular-vote outcomes translate into Senate seats.

The details

See how the polls and fundamentals compare in each Senate race, and how the expert ratings compare to the data-driven ratings.

Topline forecast · House · Senate · Governors

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